Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium
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Open Access
- 1 June 2019
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science Advances
- Vol. 5 (6), eaav9396
- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396
Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier–resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Funding Information
- National Science Foundation (PLR-1603799)
- National Science Foundation (PLR-1603815)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX17AG65G)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AQ40G)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX17AG65G)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX17AG65G)
- Carlsbergfondet
- Danish Council for Independent Research
- European Research Council (grant agreement 610055)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NSSC17K0566)
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