Predicting the Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Age of Onset through Modelling Genetic Risk Variants with Smoking

Abstract

The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a common, incurable disease with major individual and health service costs. Preventing its development is therefore an important goal. Being able to predict who will develop RA would allow researchers to look at ways to prevent it. Many factors have been found that increase someone's risk of RA. These are divided into genetic and environmental (such as smoking) factors. The risk of RA associated with each factor has previously been reported. Here, we demonstrate a method that combines these risk factors in a process called “prediction modelling” to estimate someone's lifetime risk of RA. We show that firstly, our prediction models can identify people with very high-risks of RA and secondly, they can be used to identify people at risk of developing RA at a younger age. Although these findings are an important first step towards preventing RA, as only a minority of people tested had substantially increased disease risks our models could not be used to screen the general population. Instead they need testing in people already at risk of RA such as relatives of affected patients. In this context they could identify enough numbers of high-risk people to allow preventive methods to be evaluated.