Visual Flight Rules Flight Into Instrument Meteorological Conditions: An Empirical Investigation of the Possible Causes

Abstract

Pilots' decisions to continue or divert from a visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) were investigated using a dynamic simulation of a hypothetical cross-country flight. Differences in situation assessment, risk perception, and motivation between pilots who chose to continue or divert from a VFR flight into an IMC situation were examined. Results indicate that the simulation was successful in identifying pilots who would choose to either continue or divert and that differences existed between these two groups of pilots. Accuracy of visibility estimates, appraisal of one's own skill and judgment, and frequency of risk-taking behavior were most important in predicting whether a pilot would continue or divert the flight. Findings suggest that overconfidence in personal ability and inaccurate diagnoses of visibility conditions precipitate VFR flight into IMC. More research is needed, however, to identify effective methods for remedying these problems.