'Pressing On' Into Deteriorating Conditions: An Application of Behavioral Decision Theory to Pilot Decision Making

Abstract

One of the most significant factors in general aviation fatalities is the continuance of visual flight rules (VFR) flight into deteriorating weather. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a descriptive theory of decision making could be applied to pilots' decisions about whether to continue a flight into deteriorating weather. Prospect theory predicts that when situations are viewed in terms of gains, people are risk averse, but when situations are viewed in terms of losses, people are risk seeking. Computer simulated scenarios of cross-country VFR flights were presented to participants who had to decide whether they would continue with the flight. The study investigated three questions. First, do pilots normally frame such decisions in terms of gains or losses? Second, what factors are considered relevant by pilots when making such decisions? Third, can a pilot's decisions about whether to continue a flight be manipulated by the framing of the problem? We hypothesized that pilots who were encouraged to make their decision in terms of anticipated gains from their current position would make more risk-averse or cautious decisions than pilots who were concerned about minimizing past costs. Results showed that participants tended to select the gains frame rather than the losses frame as the way they would naturally consider the decision of whether to continue with the flight. Participants rated social influence as the least important factor affecting their decisions. Pilots who viewed the decision from a gains framework were significantly less likely to press on into deteriorating conditions than pilots who viewed the decision from a loss perspective. The implications for training in pilot decision making are discussed.