Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns
Open Access
- 1 April 2011
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- Vol. 50 (4), 785-799
- https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jamc2547.1
Abstract
An empirical scheme for predicting the meteorological conditions that lead to summer forest fire severity for Canada using the multivariate singular value decomposition (SVD) has been developed for the 1953–2007 period. The levels and sources of predictive skill have been estimated using a cross-validation design. The predictor fields are global sea surface temperatures (SST) and Palmer drought severity index. Two consecutive 3-month predictor periods are used to detect evolving conditions in the predictor fields. Correlation, mean absolute error, and percent correct verification statistics are used to assess forecast model performance. Nationally averaged skills are shown to be statistically significant, which suggests that they are suitable for application to forest fire prediction and for management purposes. These forecasts average a 0.33 correlation skill across Canada and greater than 0.6 in the forested regions from the Yukon, through northern Prairie Provinces, northern Ontario, and central Quebec into Newfoundland. SVD forecasts generally outperform persistence forecasts. The importance of the leading two SVD modes to Canadian summer forest fire severity, accounting for approximately 95% of the squared covariance, is emphasized. The first mode relates strongly to interdecadal trend in global SST. Between 1953 and 2007 the western tropical Pacific, the Indian, and the North Atlantic Oceans have tended to warm while the northeastern Pacific and the extreme Southern Hemisphere oceans have shown a cooling trend. During the same period, summer forest fire exhibited increased severity across the large boreal forest region of Canada. The SVD diagnostics also indicate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation play a significant role in Canadian fire severity. Warm episodes (El Niño) tend to be associated with severe fire conditions over the Yukon, parts of the northern Prairie Provinces, and central Quebec. The linearity of the SVD manifests opposite response during the cold (La Niña) events.Keywords
This publication has 49 references indexed in Scilit:
- Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approachGlobal Change Biology, 2009
- Future emissions from Canadian boreal forest firesCanadian Journal of Forest Research, 2009
- Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the Interior West, USACanadian Journal of Forest Research, 2006
- The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.Geophysical Research Letters, 2001
- Teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña events and summer extended dry spells on the Canadian PrairiesInternational Journal of Climatology, 1999
- On the Relationship between Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature VariationsJournal of Climate, 1995
- Linear Statistical Short-Term Climate Predictive Skill in the Northern HemisphereJournal of Climate, 1994
- An Intercomparison of Methods for Finding Coupled Patterns in Climate DataJournal of Climate, 1992
- A study of interpolation methods for forest fire danger rating in CanadaCanadian Journal of Forest Research, 1989
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and AssumptionsJournal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 1984