Assumed and inferred spatial structure of populations: the Scandinavian brown bears revisited

Abstract

We reanalysed the spatial structure of the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos) population based on multilocus genotypes. We used data from a former study that had presumed a priori a specific population subdivision based on four subpopulations. Using two independent methods (neighbour-joining trees and Bayesian assignment tests), we analysed the data without any prior presumption about the spatial structure. A subdivision of the population into three subpopulations emerged from our study. The genetic pattern of these subpopulations matched the three geographical clusters of individuals present in the population. We recommend considering the Scandinavian brown bear population as consisting of three (instead of four) subpopulations. Our results underline the importance of determining genetic structure from the data, without presupposing a structure, even when there seems to be good reason to do so.