Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.