Problems of Scenario Modeling of the Transport Complex

Abstract

The article describes a calculation model for the development of the transport complex in the diversified structure of the Russian economy. The model is a set of variables describing the numerical characteristics of the subject area and a set of dependencies that relate the values of variables. The model is designed to solve functional problems of the long and medium-term, such as: determining the size and structure of demand for transportation by a specific mode of transport; assessment of the influence of factors of a general economic nature (dollar exchange rate, price level for the main types of products, etc.), the economic situation in related sectors of the economy (production volumes, product prices, etc.) on the performance indicators of individual types of transport ; and also, an assessment of the impact of the state of a particular type of transport on the performance of sectors and on the economy as a whole; determining the prospects for the development of each type of transport based on forecasts of changes in the economic situation in the country, the dynamics of the development of related sectors of the economy and competing modes of transport. The solution to these problems is based on an analysis of scenario options for the development of transport for the future and an assessment of the possible consequences of the adoption of certain decisions. The model was used to predict the transport situation and plan the activities for a large transport company. The scenario is given by the values of the exogenous variables of the model. An approach to creating a scenario-based modeling system for a transport complex supporting hierarchical structures for the formation of computational problems, examples of their solution for various development scenarios is presented.