Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 9 April 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 372 (6538), 149-+
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055
Abstract
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.Keywords
Funding Information
- University of Kentucky
- Universität Bern
- Universitätsspital Basel
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR200908)
- European Commission (101003688)
- CANDU Owners Group
- Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève
- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
- Université de Sfax
- UKRI Research England (NA)
- National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (NIHR200929)
- United Kingdom Medical Research Council (MC_PC_19065)
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