UAS industry growth: Forecasting impact on regional infrastructure, environment, and economy

Abstract

A key requirement in preparing for a growing UAS industry and for the integration of unmanned vehicles into the US national airspace, is a method for clear and specific forecasting. We must know what types of operations are being performed, where they will occur, and what types of vehicles will be used. Current demand forecast models are not tightly coupled to the real purpose of the mission requirements (e.g. in terms the real locations of physical structures such as windmills to inspect, farms to survey, pipelines to patrol, etc.). To this end, Mosaic ATM under NASA guidance, is developing a crowd-sourced demand forecast engine for commercial and government organizational users to draw upon and share vetted and accurate projection data, and extend that data to evaluate associated impacts. The UAS Demand Generator for Discrete Airspace Density (UAXPAN) project combines forecast data from disparate sources in a common data format, and uses these to present a solid basis for demand forecasts. This specific, data-driven forecasting is crucial to understanding the impacts of a growing UAS industry on regional infrastructure, environment, and economy.