Scope for selecting many breeding stocks of possible economic value in the future

Abstract

Current animal improvement deals largely with selection of stocks for current economic objectives. However, there is uncertainty about how well these objectives will hold in the future, since husbandry and marketing needs and conditions may change unpredictably over time. The scope for developing alternative stocks, selected for different chosen sets of objectives, is considered, so that by substitution or crossing it may be possible to reduce the uncertainty and better meet future needs and conditions. The reduction in uncertainty is modelled by including risk or uncertainty in the discount rate in assessing benefits over time from one cycle of selection. From the national viewpoint, the costs of developing alternative selection stocks are small relative to the possible returns. Thus, if the uncertainties were reduced by having them, a large number of such alternative stocks would be justified. The expected benefits to the community from animal breeding would also be increased thereby.