Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations
Open Access
- 2 November 2005
- journal article
- Published by The Royal Society in Biology Letters
- Vol. 2 (1), 148-151
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2005.0397
Abstract
Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success.This publication has 15 references indexed in Scilit:
- Effects of exceptional conservation measures on survival and seasonal hunting mortality in greater snow geeseJournal of Applied Ecology, 2005
- Carry‐over effects and habitat quality in migratory populationsOikos, 2005
- Ecological conditions during winter affect sexual selection and breeding in a migratory birdProceedings. Biological sciences, 2004
- Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory birdProceedings. Biological sciences, 2004
- Links between worlds: unraveling migratory connectivityTrends in Ecology & Evolution, 2002
- ARE BODY CONDITION AND REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT OF LAYING GREATER SNOW GEESE AFFECTED BY THE SPRING HUNT?Ornithological Applications, 2002
- Reproductive consequences of egg‐laying decisions in snow geeseJournal of Animal Ecology, 2000
- The effect of local change in habitat quality on populations of migratory speciesJournal of Applied Ecology, 1998
- Predicting the consequences of habitat loss for migratory populationsProceedings. Biological sciences, 1996
- Viability costs of male tail ornaments in a swallowNature, 1989