Generalized Multicommodity Network Flow Model for the Earth–Moon–Mars Logistics System

Abstract

Simple logistics strategies such as “carry-along” and Earth-based “resupply” were sufficient for past human space programs. Next-generation space logistics paradigms are expected to be more complex, involving multiple exploration destinations and in situ resource utilization. Optional in situ resource utilization brings additional complexity to the interplanetary supply chain network design problem. This paper presents an interdependent network flow modeling method for determining optimal logistics strategies for space exploration and its application to the human exploration of Mars. It is found that a strategy using lunar resources in the cislunar network may improve overall launch mass to low Earth orbit for recurring missions to Mars compared to NASA’s Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0, even when including the mass of the in situ resource utilization infrastructures that need to be predeployed. Other findings suggest that chemical propulsion using liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen, lunar in situ resource utilization water production, and the use of aerocapture significantly contribute to reducing launch mass from Earth. A sensitivity analysis of in situ resource utilization reveals that, under the given assumptions, local lunar resources become attractive at productivity levels above $1.8\mathrm{kg}/\mathrm{year}/\mathrm{kg}$ in the context of future human exploration of Mars.