Drifting into failure: theorising the dynamics of disaster incubation
- 2 November 2013
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis Ltd in Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science
- Vol. 15 (6), 534-544
- https://doi.org/10.1080/1463922x.2013.856495
Abstract
Ergonomic theory holds that accidents are preceded by periods of gradually increasing (but essentially unrecognised) risk, known originally in man-made disaster theory as the incubation period. This paper discusses the theorising of the dynamics of such accident incubation. It considers theoretical contributions – ranging from high-reliability to control theory to resilience engineering – for their ability to illuminate the driving forces behind a gradual shift in norms and erosion of safety margins, and for their ability to effectively track and represent such changes over time.Keywords
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