Recruitment to Northwest Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) and Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) Stocks: Influence of Stock Size and Climate

Abstract

Year-class success of both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks in the northwest Atlantic exhibits large-scale coherence and low-frequency variability with apparent periodicities of 10–20 yr. Several physical and biological variables in the region exhibit similar large-scale coherence and apparent periodicity. Multiple regression analysis indicates that year-class success in northwest Atlantic cod stocks tends to be associated with large-scale meteorological patterns and offshore winds. Recruitment to most haddock stocks from the Scotian Shelf to Georges Bank is negatively associated with abundance of 0-group mackerel, which may be due to predation over winter and/or to a combination of environmental features including sea-surface temperature, large-scale atmospheric pressure systems, and freshwater outflows. Statistical analyses often did not define a unique set of variables that best predicted fishery recruitment due to widespread intercorrelations among environmental processes and the likelihood that not all relevant processes entered directly into the analyses. There is little evidence that stock reproductive output during the study period was significantly related to year-class success.