Understanding the socioeconomic heterogeneity in healthcare in US counties: the effect of population density, education and poverty on H1N1 pandemic mortality

Abstract

SUMMARY: The recent outbreak of H1N1 has provided the scientific community with a sad but timely opportunity to understand the influence of socioeconomic determinants on H1N1 pandemic mortality. To this end, we have used data collected from 341 US counties to model H1N1 deaths/1000 using 12 socioeconomic predictors to discover why certain counties reported fewer H1N1 deaths compared to other counties. These predictors were then used to build a decision tree. The decision tree developed was then used to predict H1N1 mortality for the whole of the USA. Our estimate of 7667 H1N1 deaths are in accord with the lower bound of the CDC estimate of 8870 deaths. In addition to the H1N1 death estimates, we have listed possible counties to be targeted for health-related interventions. The respective state/county authorities can use these results as the basis to target and optimize the distribution of public health resources.