Spatiotemporal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

Abstract

The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002–2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002–2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003–2005; 2006; and 2007–2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission. Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne disease, which primarily occurs in rural and suburban areas of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region. JE still remains a significant public health problem in mainland China, with approximately 50% of global cases annually. Few studies have explored the spatiotemporal patterns of JE cases in China. Here we reported the results of Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics of JE cases in mainland China at the county level during the four periods: 2002; 2003–2005; 2006; 2007–2010. The primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE was detected in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. The results of LISA and spatial scan statistics were consistent which indicates that these methods are reliable and could have wider applications in the fields of disease surveillance and management in China, particularly in the surveillance and monitoring of other vector-borne diseases. These findings may assist in informing prevention and control strategies and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.