Reconciling Different Infectivity Estimates for HIV-1

Abstract

Summary: In our article, ''HIV-1 Epidemics Driven by Late Stage Disease,'' we conclude that the probability of transmission of HIV through promiscuous or casual sexual contacts is significantly higher in the third or symptomatic stage of the disease. Our results differ greatly from those of the current literature. The primary stage or first stage has been reported to be the most infectious based on an article by Jacquez et al. More recently, the Wawer et al study of monoga- mous heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda found that the trans- mission of HIV was most likely to occur in the first 5 months after infection. We describe how the findings of the Wawer et al study might be compatible with our results. We also respond to a response by Koopman and Simon, who seem to criticize their own paper severely and choose not to defend it against our remarks.