Studies on the 1967–68 foot and mouth disease epidemic: incubation period and herd serial interval

Abstract

Summary: The incubation period during this epidemic was studied using both a spectral analysis-cum-filtering method and analysis of case histories. Using spectral analysis, the modal herd serial interval was estimated to be 8–10 days based on the record of the daily number of outbreaks and an adjusted cattle series. The case histories tended to confirm these estimates but indicated that the serial interval varied considerably between species. The filtering method revealed that the herd serial interval apparently changed during the epidemic. For the first 4 weeks the interval was 8 days, while in the latter stages it was about 2 weeks.