Revisiting the ‘Bon curve’

Abstract

Bon’s proposition of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the share of construction activities and stages of economic development, which is commonly known as the ‘Bon curve’, has been explored in earlier studies. The previous studies adopted cross-sectional comparison comprising a number of selected countries over a period of time. This study revisits Bon’s theories with data maintained by the United Nations Statistics Division, which covers 205 economies from 1970 to 2009. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc tests and quadratic regression were used in the verification process. Cross-sectional comparison and longitudinal analysis were used to verify Bon’s propositions. The inverted U-shaped relationship between construction activities and level of development was not confirmed when the aggregated data of all countries over time were considered simultaneously. The relationships across countries at a given time were not confirmed in the majority of the yearly aggregated data. The relationships within countries over time were confirmed in 78 economies, mostly from high and upper-middle income countries. Bon’s proposition of ‘volume follows share’ was not confirmed. Declines in construction were found in most of the high income economies. In conclusion, Bon’s curve is to be interpreted as explaining variation within the developed economies over time.