The dynamics of dairy land use change with respect to the milk quota regime

Abstract

This article analyses the sequence of changes in land used for milk production on dairy farms before, during and towards the abolition of milk quotas. Using a unique dataset comprising farm level data of the Netherlands between 1971 and 2011 we estimate two duration models, analysing the time period between increases and decreases in dairy land use. The impact of milk quota, socio-economic, farm income and economic-political variables on the likelihood of a farm changing its land use are assessed. Results show that changes are highly farm specific, but that quota abolition will lead to a more dynamic dairy sector.