No time to wait: how many HIV-infected homosexual men are diagnosed late and consequently die? (England and Wales, 1993–2002)

Abstract

To present national trends of the estimated number and proportion of late HIV diagnoses and short-term mortality following diagnosis among men who have had sex with men (MSM). To determine separately risk factors for late diagnosis and short-term mortality. Analysis of national HIV/AIDS case reports of new diagnoses linked to CD4 cell counts from the CD4 Surveillance Scheme. Inverse probability weighting adjusted for individuals with no CD4 cell count at diagnosis. Outcomes were late diagnosis (CD4 cell count 6 Of 14 158 new diagnoses, 31% were estimated as late diagnoses. Despite a decreasing trend (P trend The continued late diagnosis of one in four MSM means these individuals lose the option to start therapy early, miss opportunities to prevent further transmission and are approximately 10 times more likely to die within a year of diagnosis. Early diagnosis of all MSM in 2001 could have reduced short-term mortality by 84% and all mortality in that year by 22%.