Enhancing Performance Prediction Robustness by Combining Analytical Modeling and Machine Learning

Abstract

Classical approaches to performance prediction rely on two, typically antithetic, techniques: Machine Learning (ML) and Analytical Modeling (AM). ML takes a black box approach, whose accuracy strongly depends on the representativeness of the dataset used during the initial training phase. Specifically, it can achieve very good accuracy in areas of the features' space that have been sufficiently explored during the training process. Conversely, AM techniques require no or minimal training, hence exhibiting the potential for supporting prompt instantiation of the performance model of the target system. However, in order to ensure their tractability, they typically rely on a set of simplifying assumptions. Consequently, AM's accuracy can be seriously challenged in scenarios (e.g., workload conditions) in which such assumptions are not matched. In this paper we explore several hybrid/gray box techniques that exploit AM and ML in synergy in order to get the best of the two worlds. We evaluate the proposed techniques in case studies targeting two complex and widely adopted middleware systems: a NoSQL distributed key-value store and a Total Order Broadcast (TOB) service.