Inability to Predict Relapse in Acute Asthma

Abstract

FISCHL and co-workers developed an index that they claimed would predict relapse in patients with asthma.¹ The index had a 95 per cent sensitivity and a 97 per cent specificity when applied to a sample of emergency room patients discharged or hospitalized within 12 hours. The authors enumerated the advantages of this index, including cost-effectiveness and a shorter period of emergency care before hospitalization. Other investigators have reported that the index is both accurate² and useful.³ Before this or any other index gains universal acceptance, we should demonstrate that the predictions are valid in a variety of settings.^{4 , 5} This validation . . .