Medical Assessment by a Delphi Group Opinion Technic

Abstract

The Delphi technic is a method for obtaining answers to questions that are issues of uncertainty even to experts. Its use for finding a group consensus is illustrated here by its application to a problem of predicting human mortality from an experiment in which trauma to the liver was produced in animals by a riotcontrol device. Expert surgeons were asked to fill in a questionnaire in which they estimated human mortality as a function of the severity of the injury. These initial estimates were then modified by application of a second round of the Delphi technic. Although inherent uncertainties remained, there was a marked increase in the consistency of the answers from the first to the second round. Evidence suggests an increase in reliability as well. (N Engl J Med 288:1272–1275, 1973)