Multiple Attribute Design Evaluation of Complex Engineering Products Using the Evidential Reasoning Approach

Abstract

This paper reports the application of an evidential reasoning approach to design selection of retro-fit options for complex engineering products. The particular selection problem investigated in this paper is initially modelled by means of techno-economic analysis and may be viewed as a multiple-attribute decision-making problem with a hierarchical structure of attributes which may be measured for each design option using numerical values or subjective judgements with uncertainty. In this paper, the evaluation model is discussed first. Techniques for articulating original evaluation data are also explored. The evidential reasoning approach, which has been developed on the basis of decision theory and the Dempster-Shafer theory in artificial intelligence, is then summarized. A real-world design selection problem involving the retro-fitting of a typical short sea ferry is then examined in detail using the approach.