A Simple Fish-Population Model Including Environmental Influence, for Two Western Atlantic Shelf Stocks

Abstract
For several Scotian Shelf and Gulf of Maine stocks, correlations have been observed between ocean temperatures, subsequent fish catches, and fishing effort. We consider a simple fish-population model relating these elements. We suggest that variation in ocean climate triggers corresponding fluctuations in fish stock–recruitment and subsequent abundance and catch. Two pathways between abundance and catch are recognized: (1) catch is simply proportional to abundance (direct influence); and (2) in some cases at least, fishermen traditionally have sensed the abundance of a stock and adjusted their fishing effort accordingly; therefore, in periods of less favorable climate for a stock, catch would diminish indirectly because of reduced or "responsive" effort. In such cases, where the fishermen act to stabilize the stock, fishing effort and fish catch are correlated with ocean climate. In any case, ocean climate and "responsive" effort merit consideration as potentially significant factors in population models of these stocks. Key words: fish-population model, effort, recruitment, abundance, cod, yellowtail flounder