Research of icing thickness on transmission lines based on fuzzy Markov chain prediction

Abstract

Power system operation is confronted with the problem of how to reduce the damage that caused by the ice on the transmission lines as much as possible. Due to the indeterminacy of icing thickness on the transmission lines, accurate prediction of the icing thickness is essential in order to effectively guide the transmission line route planning and ice-resistant design of electric grid. Currently, there are relatively few research results on the medium and long term prediction of the icing thickness on the transmission lines. This paper presents a transmission line icing thickness prediction model that based on fuzzy Markov chain prediction, combining with the practical measured data from the Czech Studnice Observatory between 1940 and 1999. The model was verified through forecasting the range of the annual maximum of icing thickness during 1994-1999. The result shows that the accuracy of this method reached 80%.