Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science
- 26 January 2012
- journal article
- review article
- Published by Wiley in Conservation Biology
- Vol. 26 (1), 29-38
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01806.x
Abstract
Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert‐elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.Keywords
This publication has 70 references indexed in Scilit:
- Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2011
- Future declines of the binational Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: the importance of environmental and cultural changeFrontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009
- Conservation in the dark? The information used to support management decisionsFrontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009
- Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidenceOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2008
- Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2008
- Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate changeJournal of Applied Ecology, 2008
- Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods*Journal of Applied Ecology, 2006
- Ecology, Conservation, and Public PolicyAnnual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 2001
- Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1977
- Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesScience, 1974