A WEATHER INDEX TO FORECAST POTENTIAL INCIDENCE OF APHID-TRANSMITTED VIRUS DISEASES OF PEPPERS IN THE NIAGARA PENINSULA

Abstract

The incidence of non-persistent aphid-transmitted viruses of peppers in the Niagara Peninsula at the end of August was closely correlated with accumulated degree-days plus total bright sunshine hours in April. Virus disease incidence agreed closely with predictions from a simple regression equation based on these weather factors for the period 1970–1977. Risk years for these diseases can be accurately forecast for this region in advance of spring planting. This model may prove generally applicable in other pepper growing areas by calculating regression of local virus incidence on regional meteorological records.