Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples
Open Access
- 21 November 2017
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in Sustainability
- Vol. 9 (11), 2138
- https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112138
Abstract
This paper experiments an artificial neural networks model with Bayesian approach on a small real estate sample. The output distribution has been calculated operating a numerical integration on the weights space with the Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method (MCHMCM). On the same real estate sample, MCHMCM has been compared with a neural networks model (NNs), traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) and the Penalized Spline Semiparametric Method (PSSM). All four methods have been developed for testing the forecasting capacity and reliability of MCHMCM in the real estate field. The Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method has proved to be the best model with an absolute average percentage error of 6.61%.This publication has 38 references indexed in Scilit:
- An Artificial Neural Network and Entropy Model for Residential Property Price Forecasting in Hong KongJournal of Property Research, 2008
- Statistical significance testing and cumulative knowledge in psychology: Implications for training of researchers.Psychological Methods, 1996
- Predicting japanese corporate bankruptcy in terms of financial data using neural networkComputers & Industrial Engineering, 1994
- The Minimally Important Difference Significant Criterion for Sample SizeJournal of Educational Statistics, 1992
- Artificial Intelligence and the Mass Appraisal of Residential ApartmentsJournal of Property Valuation and Investment, 1992
- How Many Subjects Does It Take To Do A Regression AnalysisMultivariate Behavioral Research, 1991
- Hybrid Monte CarloPhysics Letters B, 1987
- Learning representations by back-propagating errorsNature, 1986
- Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure CompetitionJournal of Political Economy, 1974
- A New Approach to Consumer TheoryJournal of Political Economy, 1966