Population momentum expresses population aging

Abstract

Population momentum and population aging occur when an initially growing population experiences a reduction in fertility to replacement level. Conceptually and empirically, momentum and aging express the same change, albeit on different scales. Fundamentally, they are two manifestations of the underlying process of demographic transformation. We consider three measures of aging over the transition to stationarity: the increase in mean population age, the decrease in the proportion under age 30, and the increase in the proportion over age 65. The three measures of aging are highly correlated, though the relationship to momentum is weakest for the increase in the proportion over age 65. We find that momentum is linearly related to aging. In both model and actual populations, a one-year increase in mean age translates into about 4.5% more population growth. The population below age 30 does not grow over the transition to stationarity, and the ratio of initial to ultimate proportions under age 30 is virtually identical to momentum.