Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes
- 1 January 2010
- journal article
- Published by Elsevier BV in Journal of Great Lakes Research
- Vol. 36, 7-21
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2010.03.012
Abstract
Assessing regional impacts of climate change begins with development of climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Here, proven statistical downscaling methods are applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) output to improve the simulation and resolution of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the US Great Lakes region. The absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing and on the trajectory of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Annual temperatures in the region are projected to increase 1.4 ± 0.6 °C over the near-term (2010–2039), by 2.0 ± 0.7 °C under lower and 3 ± 1 °C under higher emissions by midcentury (2040–2069), and by 3 ± 1 °C under lower and 5.0 ± 1.2 °C under higher emissions by end-of-century (2070–2099), relative to the historical reference period 1961–1990. Simulations also highlight seasonal and geographical differences in warming, consistent with recent trends. Increases in winter and spring precipitation of up to 20% under lower and 30% under higher emissions are projected by end-of-century, while projections for summer and fall remain inconsistent. Competing effects of shifting precipitation and warmer temperatures suggest little change in Great Lake levels over much of the century until the end of the century, when net decreases are expected under higher emissions. Overall, these projections suggest the potential for considerable changes to climate in the US Great Lakes region; changes that could be mitigated by reducing global emissions to follow a lower as opposed to a higher emissions trajectory over the coming century.Keywords
This publication has 49 references indexed in Scilit:
- Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in metropolitan Chicago and its surrounding, multi-state regionJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2010
- The response of Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-HuronJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2010
- Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for ChicagoJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2010
- Hydrologic impacts of projected future climate change in the Lake Michigan regionJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2010
- Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissionsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007
- Lake Level Response to Seasonal Climatic Variability in the Lake Michigan-Huron System from 1920 to 1995Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2003
- Long‐range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United StatesJournal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2002
- Evaluation of Potential Impacts on Great Lakes Water Resources Based on Climate Scenarios of Two GCMsJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2002
- Long-term Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Great Lakes Water LevelsJournal of Great Lakes Research, 2001
- Changes in climate and levels of lake Michigan: shoreline impacts at ChicagoClimatic Change, 1993