Physicians neglect base rates, and it matters
- 1 March 1996
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Behavioral and Brain Sciences
- Vol. 19 (1), 25-26
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00041261
Abstract
A recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently, depending on whether it was presented early or late in the case. Although these adult reasoners might do better if given hints through talk of relative frequencies, this would not prove that they had no problem of base rate neglect.Keywords
This publication has 195 references indexed in Scilit:
- Biases of Probability Assessment: A Comparison of Frequency and Single-Case JudgmentsOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1995
- The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence QualityOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1993
- Reconstructive remembering of the scientific literatureCognition, 1993
- Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertaintyOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1988
- The proper seat: A Bayesian discussion of the position of expert witnesses.Law and Human Behavior, 1988
- Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones?Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1986
- Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1983
- On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy?Cognition, 1979
- Motivation, heuristics, and the psychology of predictionMotivation and Emotion, 1979
- Naive attributors' attributions and predictions: What is informative and when is an effect an effect?Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1978