Classifying and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis

Abstract

Uncertainty is of paramount importance in modern day decision making. In response to this, it has been suggested that policy analysts have to be more careful in communicating the uncertainties that are inherent in policy advice. To support policy analysts in identifying uncertainties and communicating these uncertainties to decision makers, an uncertainty matrix was proposed by Walker et al. (2003), which synthesised various taxonomies, frameworks and typologies of uncertainties from different decision support fields. Since its publication, this framework has been applied to different domains. As a result, the framework has undergone changes resulting in a proliferation of uncertainty frameworks. This proliferation runs counter to the purpose of the original framework. This paper presents an extensive review of the literature that builds on Walker et al. (2003). In light of this, a synthesis is presented, which can be used to assess and communicate uncertainties in model-based policy analysis studies.