Development of a New Fall Risk Assessment Index for Older Adults

Abstract

SummaryBackgroundFalls are the third-leading cause of a bedridden state and are a major cause of morbidity in elderly people. Therefore, it is important to determine an older person’s risk of falling using a simple and reliable method. The aim of the present study was to examine whether our newly developed index for the assessment of complex-task locomotion can predict falls in robust elderly people.MethodsThe new index consisted of four items (stand-up, turn, walk and trip tests). It was used to assess 780 community-dwelling elderly Japanese people (mean age 76.0±7.4 years, 300 men and 480 women) who could complete a Timed Up and Go test in less than 13.5 seconds. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) to validate the index and to determine its cut-off point to predict falls.ResultsThe area under the curve was 0.15 (p<0.001, 95% CI: 0.675-0.755). The ROC curve analysis enabled the best cut-off (1 point) to discriminate fallers from non-fallers (sensitivity 80.8%, specificity 60.6%).ConclusionWe have demonstrated that the new index is a reliable indicator for falls in elderly people who have higher levels of functional capacity. Our data suggest that a score of more than 1 point by the new index can predict falls in robust elderly people