Xi Jinping's Operational Code Beliefs and China's Foreign Policy

Abstract

What will China’s foreign policy be under Xi Jinping, the new Chinese leader in Beijing? Will Xi follow Hu Jintao—his predecessor—or change the course of China’s foreign policy orientation in the next decade? Engaging in the current debates over rising China’s foreign policy and its implications for regional security, we suggest ‘bringing the leaders back in’ for a study of China’s foreign policy under Xi. We apply operational code analysis, a political psychology approach, to examine the differences and similarities of Xi and Hu’s belief systems. We suggest that Xi shares Hu’s philosophical and instrumental beliefs, which implies more continuities than changes in China’s foreign policy under Xi. In addition, Hu and Xi share similar cooperative worldviews, but the latter’s strategy tends to be more assertive. This suggests that although Xi is a status quo leader, optimistic about the existing international system, he may adopt an assertive foreign policy to achieve his strategic goals if external pressure grows too great. Other states, especially the United States, need to review and revise their foreign policy on China should they have adopted, or intend to adopt, a containment policy towards the PRC, because although a rising China may not be a threat, an angry China indeed will be.