The research is devoted to justifying regulatory policy scenarios. The base of the analysis is the built cognitive map that shows the interactions between factors, leverages and goals of regulatory policy. For the purpose of justifying the possible dynamics of factors in the future in every scenario, changes of the most negative and positive factors were investigated, according to which the possible forecast for them was proposed. In the process of investigation, the impact of negative factors on the regulatory policy goals, the combination of leverages that must be included for overcoming the negative impact of all these factors were analysed and justified. As a result of the research we have determined three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and most probable. For every scenario, a specific set of leverages was proposed.