Revenue forecasting accuracy in Ohio local governments

Abstract

Fiscal stress has forced Ohio local governments to pay increasing attention to the importance of revenue forecasting. This paper identifies and examines two Ohio local governments’ revenue forecasting approaches and forecasting accuracy using the case study method. It compares the differences in forecasting methods used. This research finds that informal forecasting methods are used by the county and formal forecasting methods are used by the city, that forecast accuracy varies by level of revenue aggregation using the informal method, and that depending on the revenue source, simple methods are more appropriate than complex methods.