A new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic models

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to propose a new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic modelling tools. The methodology is based on frequency-weighted impact pressure, and uses an avalanche dynamics model embedded within a statistical framework. The outlined procedure provides a useful way for avalanche experts to produce hazard maps for the typical case of avalanche sites where historical records are either poorly documented or even completely lacking, as well as to derive confidence limits on the proposed zoning. The methodology is implemented using avalanche information from Iceland and the Swiss mapping criteria, and applied to an Icelandic real world avalanche-mapping problem.