Risk- and Simulation-Based Optimization of Channel Depths: Entrance Channel of Cam Pha Coal Port

Abstract

We present a simulation model for long-term optimal design of channel depths in which the risk of ship grounding due to wave impacts can be assessed for every ship transit. This new model includes four main components: (1) an eXponential probability law for the number of ship departures; (2) a parametric model of the wave-induced ship motions; (3) modeling effects of tidal variations on the channel performance; and (4) a Poisson probability law for the grounding model in a single random ship departure. A key procedure of the simulation process is to define a minimum underkeel clearance allowance for ship entrance and simultaneously determine downtimes that correspond to an acceptable grounding risk for a specified ship and a generated environment condition. The final results derived from the simulation model can be considered as the key parameters in analysis and selection of an optimal depth. The model has been applied to the entrance channel of Cam Pha Coal Port, Vietnam, as a case study.