Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U.S. Using Empirical Track Model

Abstract

This paper describes a new technique for modeling hurricane risk in the United States. A storm track modeling approach is employed where, for each hurricane, the entire track as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall is modeled. The central pressure is modeled as a function of the sea surface temperature. The approach is validated through comparisons of simulated and observed key hurricane statistics (central pressure, translation speed, heading, and approach distance) along the U.S. coastline. The simulated and observed landfall rates of intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3 and higher) also are compared on a regional basis along the coast. The model is able to reproduce the continuously varying hurricane climatology along the U.S. coastline, and it provides a rational means for examining the hurricane risk for geographically distributed systems such as transmission lines and insurance portfolios.