Demand forecasting as a tool for sustainable water resource management

Abstract

Water is arguably the most critical of all resources, and its sustainable development is essential to any sustainable society. Current increases in demand, coupled with climate change-induced uncertainty over supply, means that UK water resources are closer to sustainability limits than ever before. Demand management is increasingly viewed as a key element of a sustainable water resource strategy, but must be supported by accurate demand forecasts, preferably those that address micro-scale multi-component demands as these can provide better information on which optimal decisions about water allocation can be made. However, good demand forecasting in itself is not sufficient to promote the sustainable use of water resources. The implications of demand, and strategies to manage that demand must also be considered, notably in the equitable allocation of supplies between future and current users, between current social groups, and the needs of the environment. This paper describes the development of a forecasting package that integrates microsimulation and econometric models to produce small area forecasts of water demand for Yorkshire, UK, and discusses how the demand estimations may be developed to address sustainability issues with respect to future generations, disadvantaged social groups and the environment.