An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast

Abstract

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather prediction products. PPM model equations are developed by using analysis data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for a period of 6 yr (1985–90). PoP forecasts are obtained from these equations by using global T-80 model output, which was installed at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in 1993. Results of verification study conducted during the monsoon season of 1995 covering various aspects of forecast skill and quality are also described.