Assessing crown fire potential in coniferous forests of western North America: a critique of current approaches and recent simulation studies
- 1 January 2010
- journal article
- research article
- Published by CSIRO Publishing in International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Vol. 19 (4), 377-398
- https://doi.org/10.1071/wf08132
Abstract
To control and use wildland fires safely and effectively depends on creditable assessments of fire potential, including the propensity for crowning in conifer forests. Simulation studies that use certain fire modelling systems (i.e. NEXUS, FlamMap, FARSITE, FFE-FVS (Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator), Fuel Management Analyst (FMAPlus®), BehavePlus) based on separate implementations or direct integration of Rothermel’s surface and crown rate of fire spread models with Van Wagner’s crown fire transition and propagation models are shown to have a significant underprediction bias when used in assessing potential crown fire behaviour in conifer forests of western North America. The principal sources of this underprediction bias are shown to include: (i) incompatible model linkages; (ii) use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and (iii) reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on the use of unsubstantiated crown fraction burned functions. The use of uncalibrated custom fuel models to represent surface fuelbeds is a fourth potential source of bias. These sources are described and documented in detail based on comparisons with experimental fire and wildfire observations and on separate analyses of model components. The manner in which the two primary canopy fuel inputs influencing crown fire initiation (i.e. foliar moisture content and canopy base height) is handled in these simulation studies and the meaning of Scott and Reinhardt’s two crown fire hazard indices are also critically examined.Keywords
This publication has 72 references indexed in Scilit:
- FIRE AND FOREST HISTORY AT MOUNT RUSHMOREEcological Applications, 2008
- Can prescribed fire be used to maintain fuel treatment effectiveness over time in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests?Forest Ecology and Management, 2008
- A simulation study of thinning and fuel treatments on a wildland–urban interface in eastern Oregon, USALandscape and Urban Planning, 2006
- Thinning and Prescribed Fire Effects on Fuels and Potential Fire Behavior in an Eastern Cascades Forest, Washington, USAFire Ecology, 2006
- Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observationsCanadian Journal of Forest Research, 2006
- Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatmentsForest Ecology and Management, 2005
- Foliar moisture content of Pacific Northwest vegetation and its relation to wildland fire behaviorForest Ecology and Management, 2002
- The Relative Importance of Fuels and Weather on Fire Behavior in Subalpine ForestsEcology, 1995
- Perspectives on experimental fires in Canadian forestry researchMathematical and Computer Modelling, 1990
- Calculating and interpreting forest fire intensitiesCanadian Journal of Botany, 1982