Predictors and long-term prognostic significance of recurrent infarction in the year after a first myocardial infarction

Abstract

This study was undertaken to examine whether clinical factors predict reinfarction within 1 year of a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to quantify the subsequent influence of reinfarction on long-term mortality. Data from 3,695 patients with a first AMI included in the Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial Registry were analyzed. The 1-year reinfarction incidence was 6.0% (220 of 3,695) and in-hospital mortality during reinfarction was 31%. Patients with reinfarction were older (63.0 vs 60.8 years) at entry. The independent clinical predictors for 1-year reinfarction were (adjusted relative odds): peripheral vascular disease (2.12), anterior location of the first AMI (1.62), angina before the first AMI (1.53), congestive heart failure on admission (1.34), diabetes (1.33), systemic hypertension (1.28) and age increment (1.13). One-year reinfarction rate increased from 4.0% in patients with 0 or 1 risk factor to 23.3% in patients with 5 to 6 risk factors (p < 0.0001). Patients with reinfarction had significantly increased 1- and 5-year mortality compared with those who had no reinfarction (11.8 vs 5.3% and 40.1 vs 20.3%, respectively, p < 0.001). Recurrent AMI within 1 year was the most powerful predictor of long-term (mean 5.5 years) total mortality (adjusted relative risk = 4.76).