Model for assessing the risk of introducing brucellosis into a brucellosis-free area

Abstract

A risk assessment model is presented, for use by local decision-makers to aid the evaluation of proposed changes in existing brucellosis eradication or control programmes. This model provides a format and structure for gathering and analysing data. The model uses data which are generally available and accessible, so that minimum time, expense and effort are required for collection. The use of this model enables an estimation of the risk of introduction of brucellosis into a non-infected population, based on the probability of importing the agent and subsequent spread, given the existence of specified surveillance and control measures. The model creates a point estimate of the risk associated with a given set of conditions.