The MUSIC Risk score: a simple method for predicting mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure
Open Access
- 24 February 2009
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in European Heart Journal
- Vol. 30 (9), 1088-1096
- https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehp032
Abstract
The prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) is extremely variable, although generally poor. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic models for CHF patients. A cohort of 992 consecutive ambulatory CHF patients was prospectively followed for a median of 44 months. Multivariable Cox models were developed to predict all-cause mortality (n = 267), cardiac mortality (primary end-point, n = 213), pump-failure death (n = 123), and sudden death (n = 90). The four final models included several combinations of the same 10 independent predictors: prior atherosclerotic vascular event, left atrial size >26 mm/m2, ejection fraction ≤35%, atrial fibrillation, left bundle-branch block or intraventricular conduction delay, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia and frequent ventricular premature beats, estimated glomerular filtration rate 1.000 ng/L, and troponin-positive. On the basis of Cox models, the MUSIC Risk scores were calculated. A cardiac mortality score >20 points identified a high-risk subgroup with a four-fold cardiac mortality risk. A simple score with a limited number of non-invasive variables successfully predicted cardiac mortality in a real-life cohort of CHF patients. The use of this model in clinical practice identifies a subgroup of high-risk patients that should be closely managed.This publication has 32 references indexed in Scilit:
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