Estimating acorn crops using visual surveys

Abstract
We describe a visual survey technique for evaluating acorn production. In contrast with previously proposed methods, our technique yields ratio-level data on annual productivity that are analyzable with standard statistics and, by sampling the same trees each year, data on the reproductive patterns of individual trees. We compared this technique with two independent sets of acorn-trap data acquired on oaks of three species at Hastings Reservation in central coastal California. Correlations between acorns counted by the visual surveys and collected from acorn traps under the same trees were significant for all three species. Most scatter in the data appeared to be attributable to three causes: (1) sampling error, especially among trees with very small crops, (2) finite counting speed, leading to a lack of discrimination among trees with very large crops by the visual surveys, and (3) arboreal acorn removal by animals. This latter factor can be particularly large, rendering visual surveys more reliable than the use of traps. Furthermore, only the high efficiency of visual surveys allows for the practical assessment of samples large enough to accommodate high within-population variation and detect widespread geographic variation in acorn production. Visual surveys offer a method of assessing the fruit or cone crops of many hardwood and conifer species that is not only more efficient but also more accurate than the use of traps.