Establishment of urban waterlogging pre-warning system based on coupling RBF-NARX neural networks

Abstract

The optimal layout of LID facilities satisfying annual runoff control for low rainfall expectation is not effective under extreme rainfall conditions and urban waterlogging may occur. In order to avoid the losses of urban waterlogging, it is particularly significant to establish a waterlogging early warning system. In this study, based on coupling RBF-NARX neural networks, we establish an early warning system that can predict the whole rainfall process according to the rainfall curve of the first 20 minutes. Using the predicted rainfall process curve as rainfall input to the rainfall-runoff calculation engine, the area at risk of waterlogging can be located. The results indicate that the coupled neural networks perform well in the prediction of the hypothetical verification rainfall process. Under the studied extreme rainfall conditions, the location of 25 flooding areas and flooding duration are well predicted by the early warning system. The maximum of average flooding depth and flooding duration is 16.5 cm and 99 minutes, respectively. By predicting the risk area and the corresponding flooding time, the early warning system is quite effective in avoiding and reducing the losses from waterlogging.